Hunting Information

Last Updated: 03/15/2012

Using the Drawing Odds Reports

 

The New Mexico drawing process is complex and drawing odds reports can be confusing. Knowing how to use the reports and how the drawing works, however, are the keys to submitting an application with a reasonable chance of success.

The Department of Game and Fish produces two drawing odds reports for the big game draws. The reports do not include area descriptions, so be sure you have the hunt codes from the appropriate Big Game Rules and Information booklet.
For a description of how New Mexico's big game drawings work, click here. The quota distributing 84% of licenses/permits to residents, 10% to residents and nonresidents who’ve contracted with an outfitter and 6% to nonresidents does NOT apply to oryx, ibex or bighorn sheep.

 

When examining past drawing odds reports, please keep in mind that the quota changed from 2011-2012 to 2012-2013.  The quota for the 2011-2012 license year was 78% of residents, 12% nonresidents using a registered outfitter and 10% nonresidents not using a registered outfitter.

As you examine the odds reports, you’ll notice that licenses or permits aren’t always distributed exactly according to the quota. This is because of variations in the number of applicants, particularly the guided pool.

 

DRAWING ODDS REPORT

 

The Drawing Odds Report contains statistics for both all big game species offered through the public draw. This report contains the number of first, second and third choice applicants and total applicants in each drawing pool for each hunt, as well as the number of successful applicants in each drawing pool. Comparing the number of applicants in your drawing pool with the number drawn in your pool will give you a rough idea of your odds.

Be aware that these numbers can be slightly misleading because a first choice applicant very likely applied for other hunts as second or third choices. Because each application can only be drawn for one hunt, the actual number of applicants competing for a particular hunt could be lower than the number indicated because some applicants would have been successful for one of their choices, and therefore their other choices would no longer be included in the draw.

 

COMPLETE REPORT

 

The complete report contains pre-draw and post-draw statistics for all big game draw hunts. This report is a Microsoft Excel file, so you can save it to your computer and customize it by deleting rows and/or columns of data that you don’t want. Pre-draw statistics include the total applicants for each hunt, as well as total first, second and third choice applicants, plus the total first, second and third-choice applicants for each drawing pool. Post-draw statistics include the total number of successful applicants by choice, plus the total number of successful applicants by choice for each drawing pool and the percentages drawn for each pool.

 

DETERMINING YOUR ODDS

 

To determine your odds, first you'll need to multiply the total number of licenses available for a particular hunt by the percentage allotted to your drawing pool (for residents-multiply by 0.84, non-residents multiply by 0.06 and guided residents and  non-residents multiply by 0.10). This will tell you approximately how many licenses are available for your pool. Then you can compare the number drawn for your drawing pool with the number of licenses available for that pool in either the Drawing Odds Report or the complete report to get a rough idea of your odds.

If you want to get more detailed, you can use the complete report and compare the number drawn in your drawing pool for each choice with the number who applied for that choice. This will provide a more accurate picture of your odds for each particular choice.

It's important to realize that the odds of drawing a particular hunt decrease dramatically after the first choice. It's also important to remember that success in the draw ultimately depends on your sequence number, so no matter how good the odds seem according to the report, it's still possible to be unsuccessful. Luck still plays a big part in drawing success.

 

Because of the complexity of the drawing process and the number of variables involved, there is no foolproof way to determine the exact odds of drawing for any particular hunt, but the drawing odds reports can help you make more informed decisions about what hunts to apply for.